Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TSMloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomoften banned
33 · 41 game
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 34 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 33 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 31 game
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nine · 24 games
TSM
Rubick
Ari · 50 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 27 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 17 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
644 picks · 687 bans
Rubick
528 picks · 344 bans
Doom
446 picks · 960 bans
Batrider
429 picks · 938 bans
Ember Spirit
411 picks · 859 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 867 bans
Beastmaster
389 picks · 998 bans
Void Spirit
388 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 25%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:21
Tundra Esports 70%TSM 30%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom33
TerrorbladeTimado
PangolierNine
Puckbryle-
SlarkSkiter
Beastmasterkasane
EnigmaAui_2000
BatriderAri
LionSneyking
ClockwerkWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1