Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO1
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:1
9Pandaswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 28 games
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 24 games
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Disruptor
pLAnet · 22 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 20 games
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 49 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 45 games
Rubick
Antares · 44 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 38 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 35 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 34 games
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 31 game
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 27 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
644 picks · 687 bans
Rubick
527 picks · 344 bans
Doom
445 picks · 960 bans
Batrider
429 picks · 938 bans
Ember Spirit
410 picks · 859 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 866 bans
Beastmaster
389 picks · 998 bans
Void Spirit
388 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:25
LGD Gaming 53%9Pandas 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 56:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawniu
JuggernautRAMZES666
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Clinkzshiro
EnigmaMieRo
Elder Titany`
DoomAntares
RubickpLAnet
EnchantressSolo
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 55%
Series result9Pandas 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1