Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Miranasignature
Nuages · 26 games
Treant Protector
Nuages · 21 game
Rubick
Jupiter · 12 games
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hyko · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
mini-` · 9 games
Hydra
Batridersignature
Worick · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Lefitan · 11 games
Rubicksignature
Lil · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
Lefitan · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
644 picks · 687 bans
Rubick
526 picks · 344 bans
Doom
444 picks · 962 bans
Batrider
429 picks · 936 bans
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 860 bans
Storm Spirit
394 picks · 865 bans
Void Spirit
388 picks · 345 bans
Beastmaster
387 picks · 998 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:41
Infamous 40%Hydra 60%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblademini-`
Faceless VoidKami
Ember SpiritMr.Jeans
DoomCloud
Primal BeastHyko
Storm SpiritWorick
UndyingNuages
TechiesHappyDyurara
MiranaJupiter
Skywrath MageOneJey
Game 2prediction correct35:38
Infamous 41%Hydra 59%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 47:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingmini-`
BloodseekerKami
BeastmasterMr.Jeans
PangolierWorick
UnderlordHyko
SnapfireCloud
RubickJupiter
Spirit BreakerOneJey
VenomancerNuages
LichHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 69%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2