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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Q · 31 game
58%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
72%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 24 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Q · 24 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 23 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 23 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 37 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
643 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
522 picks · 342 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
443 picks · 961 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
428 picks · 933 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 860 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
391 picks · 860 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
388 picks · 997 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 345 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:36
Talon Esports 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikoto
53% · 278 games49% · 265 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
50% · 187 games53% · 425 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireJabz
43% · 447 games56% · 165 games
Dark Seerzai
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinyQ
50% · 542 games42% · 321 game
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Enigma
EnigmaOli
53% · 222 games52% · 500 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct11:33
Talon Esports 37%Team Liquid 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
48% · 152 games49% · 426 games
SnapfireNisha
Snapfire
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
43% · 152 games57% · 142 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Doom
DoomJabz
47% · 297 games56% · 131 game
Lycanzai
Lycan
Rubick
RubickQ
49% · 638 games49% · 346 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
60% · 47 games48% · 241 game
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2