Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
9Pandasloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 60 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 28 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 28 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 26 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 49 games
Rubick
Antares · 44 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 42 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 38 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 35 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 34 games
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 31 game
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
643 picks · 688 bans
Rubick
517 picks · 342 bans
Doom
443 picks · 960 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 929 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 857 bans
Void Spirit
389 picks · 345 bans
Beastmaster
387 picks · 995 bans
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 858 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
Team Spirit 51%9Pandas 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYatoro
Broodmotherkiyotaka
Storm SpiritLarl
Night StalkerRAMZES666
AxeCollapse
LycanMieRo
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
DoomAntares
TinyMira
DisruptorSolo
Game 2prediction correct37:27
Team Spirit 51%9Pandas 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 53:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
Meepokiyotaka
Sand KingCollapse
BroodmotherRAMZES666
Storm SpiritLarl
BeastmasterMieRo
Spirit BreakerMiposhka
DoomAntares
Keeper of the LightMira
OracleSolo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2