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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 16 games
38%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 12 games
58%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
42%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 37 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
644 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
519 picks · 340 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 964 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
424 picks · 929 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 859 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 348 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
386 picks · 1003 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 857 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 47%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:24
Team Secret 32%Team Liquid 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 18:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerArmel
53% · 123 games41% · 191 game
SnapfireNisha
Snapfire
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFbz
57% · 162 games51% · 127 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Razor
RazorCrystallis
57% · 112 games45% · 92 games
Visagezai
Visage
Enigma
Enigmayamich
53% · 273 games57% · 40 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPuppey
50% · 128 games42% · 348 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct16:29
Team Secret 31%Team Liquid 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
54% · 248 games38% · 109 games
Drow RangermiCKe
Drow Ranger
Windranger
WindrangerArmel
46% · 93 games46% · 362 games
SnapfireNisha
Snapfire
Razor
RazorCrystallis
52% · 96 games54% · 112 games
Lycanzai
Lycan
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
50% · 386 games58% · 321 game
MiranaBoxi
Mirana
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
55% · 421 game44% · 340 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2