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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Q · 30 games
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Q · 24 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 23 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 23 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 23 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 35 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 31 game
58%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 24 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
644 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
518 picks · 339 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 964 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 929 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 858 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 348 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
386 picks · 1003 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 447 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:5
Talon Esports 49%Shopify Rebellion 51%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
50% · 126 games53% · 140 games
LycanArteezy
Lycan
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
52% · 267 games54% · 313 games
TimbersawSabeRLight-
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterJabz
43% · 112 games48% · 281 game
PuckAbed
Puck
Batrider
BatriderQ
51% · 280 games53% · 248 games
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickOli
43% · 632 games52% · 435 games
DisruptorFly
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct26:6
Talon Esports 52%Shopify Rebellion 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 20:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
65% · 165 games41% · 248 games
TerrorbladeArteezy
Terrorblade
Snapfire
SnapfireMikoto
49% · 289 games45% · 226 games
TimbersawSabeRLight-
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterJabz
50% · 128 games35% · 114 games
WindrangerAbed
Windranger
Tiny
TinyQ
58% · 313 games50% · 63 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Enigma
EnigmaOli
60% · 128 games49% · 372 games
BatriderFly
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 51%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2