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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 34 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 19 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
53%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 17 games
35%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 17 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Taiga · 16 games
50%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 46 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 30 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Silencer
Silencer
Kaori · 23 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
644 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
516 picks · 339 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 964 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 929 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 858 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 348 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
386 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 447 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% PSG Quest
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total65% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:21
OG 43%PSG Quest 57%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by OG in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYuragi
57% · 112 games53% · 121 game
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
53% · 314 games46% · 172 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Venomancer
VenomancerDM
55% · 114 games42% · 120 games
Primal BeastMalik
Primal Beast
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCeb
53% · 213 games45% · 389 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenTaiga
47% · 269 games50% · 220 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Game 2prediction correct12:30
OG 43%PSG Quest 57%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuragi
51% · 98 games46% · 44 games
LycanMalik
Lycan
Razor
Razorbzm
63% · 98 games50% · 90 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
49% · 167 games49% · 109 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCeb
47% · 35 games45% · 241 game
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Riki
RikiTaiga
52% · 127 games47% · 41 game
OracleKaori
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2