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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 35 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 31 game
58%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 24 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 21 game
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 20 games
65%

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 19 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 15 games
40%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 11 games
55%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
642 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
519 picks · 339 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 967 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
420 picks · 928 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 859 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 350 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
387 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 447 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:24
Shopify Rebellion 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Secret in 24:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArteezy
54% · 71 game42% · 109 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
54% · 115 games48% · 70 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAbed
43% · 330 games46% · 249 games
TinyArmel
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
57% · 134 games53% · 64 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Lion
LionFly
64% · 46 games45% · 204 games
Batrideryamich
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct18:8
Shopify Rebellion 57%Team Secret 43%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenArteezy
57% · 161 game41% · 272 games
SnapfireArmel
Snapfire
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
57% · 388 games51% · 176 games
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Terrorblade
Razor
RazorAbed
55% · 101 game49% · 90 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Io
IoFly
53% · 106 games46% · 138 games
Monkey Kingyamich
Monkey King
Lion
LionCr1t-
46% · 62 games42% · 142 games
SilencerPuppey
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2