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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 48 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 26 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 15 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
38%

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 33 games
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 30 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 26 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SumaiL · 25 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
516 picks · 338 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 967 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 925 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 858 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 350 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
387 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 447 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:36
TSM 45%Team Aster 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 48:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
51% · 151 game57% · 182 games
SlarkMonet
Slark
Lone Druid
Lone Druidbryle-
65% · 40 games45% · 359 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkasane
51% · 72 games47% · 126 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Batrider
BatriderAri
40% · 261 game59% · 50 games
LionKaka
Lion
Undying
UndyingWhitemon
48% · 277 games50% · 84 games
IoFantasy
Io
Game 2prediction missed40:28
TSM 45%Team Aster 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by TSM in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTimado
48% · 184 games49% · 161 game
TerrorbladeMonet
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
Timbersawbryle-
49% · 261 game59% · 145 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkasane
53% · 181 game45% · 132 games
TidehunterXxs
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderAri
53% · 375 games43% · 441 game
RubickKaka
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
51% · 90 games51% · 212 games
DisruptorFantasy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2