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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 45 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 30 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Silencer
Silencer
Kaori · 23 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 23 games
65%

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 32 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 32 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 26 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
48%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Panda · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
514 picks · 338 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 971 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 927 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 860 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
390 picks · 351 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:6
PSG Quest 52%Evil Geniuses 48%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
53% · 202 games44% · 78 games
JuggernautPakazs
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo!ob
48% · 317 games53% · 345 games
BatriderChris Luck
Batrider
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
49% · 321 game54% · 447 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
47% · 129 games48% · 356 games
EnchantressMatthew
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickOmaR
48% · 690 games55% · 433 games
ClockwerkPanda
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct22:25
PSG Quest 55%Evil Geniuses 45%
The model gave 55% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
49% · 188 games54% · 110 games
LifestealerPakazs
Lifestealer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
49% · 377 games51% · 489 games
PangolierChris Luck
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
44% · 535 games58% · 150 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
51% · 378 games45% · 824 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
45% · 147 games54% · 52 games
Elder TitanPanda
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 53%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2