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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 58 games
74%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 43 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 40 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 39 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 36 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 36 games
78%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 31 game
68%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 22 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 18 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 17 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 13 games
85%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Paparazi · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
514 picks · 338 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 971 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 927 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 860 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
390 picks · 351 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
Gaimin Gladiators 75%Xtreme Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawQuinn
57% · 215 games41% · 141 game
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Sven
Svendyrachyo
52% · 78 games46% · 456 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordAce
54% · 126 games51% · 105 games
Legion CommanderJT-
Legion Commander
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
51% · 303 games54% · 228 games
Skywrath MageXinQ
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
RubicktOfu
52% · 627 games43% · 419 games
UndyingDy
Undying
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Gaimin Gladiators 73%Xtreme Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassindyrachyo
47% · 178 games50% · 123 games
AlchemistGhost
Alchemist
Broodmother
BroodmotherAce
53% · 312 games49% · 315 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
49% · 517 games47% · 219 games
MarsJT-
Mars
Mirana
MiranatOfu
52% · 377 games48% · 771 game
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Undying
UndyingSeleri
54% · 388 games51% · 344 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 88%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2