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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windranger
shiro · 29 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
shiro · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
y` · 14 games
36%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xm · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xm · 12 games
50%

OG

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
37%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 18 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Windranger
Windranger
Natsumi · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 15 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
519 picks · 371 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 220 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 654 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 354 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
324 picks · 346 bans
59%
Windranger
Windranger
319 picks · 235 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 442 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
295 picks · 334 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:20
Vici Gaming 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 52:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
43% · 161 game51% · 100 games
LycanRaven
Lycan
Alchemist
Alchemistshiro
52% · 42 games45% · 114 games
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Templar Assassin
Largo
LargoFaith_bian
57% · 98 games43% · 153 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Rubick
RubickXinQ
49% · 111 games55% · 53 games
MiranaSkem
Mirana
Bane
Baney`
54% · 131 game55% · 123 games
Dark WillowTims
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct23:36
Vici Gaming 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 59:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
44% · 116 games53% · 59 games
NecrophosNatsumi
Necrophos
Puck
PuckXm
46% · 215 games53% · 117 games
LycanRaven
Lycan
Enigma
EnigmaFaith_bian
42% · 41 game63% · 124 games
EarthshakerYopaj
Earthshaker
Rubick
RubickXinQ
46% · 122 games49% · 55 games
MiranaSkem
Mirana
Undying
Undyingy`
47% · 98 games54% · 237 games
ClockwerkTims
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 63%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2