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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 47 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 26 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 15 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 13 games
69%

Talon Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 31 game
61%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Q · 24 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 23 games
78%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 22 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 21 game
62%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
512 picks · 337 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
451 picks · 976 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
418 picks · 932 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 863 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 351 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1004 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:33
TSM 38%Talon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerTimado
41% · 148 games44% · 161 game
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Broodmother
Broodmotherkasane
48% · 176 games54% · 181 game
TimbersawMikoto
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbryle-
52% · 331 game54% · 247 games
BatriderJabz
Batrider
Chen
ChenWhitemon
57% · 122 games52% · 245 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Techies
TechiesAri
51% · 344 games48% · 287 games
UndyingOli
Undying
Game 2prediction correct5:24
TSM 36%Talon Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 24:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordkasane
42% · 83 games61% · 186 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTimado
42% · 149 games52% · 191 game
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbryle-
42% · 199 games54% · 163 games
Dark SeerJabz
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickAri
42% · 363 games58% · 384 games
BatriderQ
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerWhitemon
45% · 199 games63% · 69 games
Elder TitanOli
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 70%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2