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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 35 games
51%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 18 games
39%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
53%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 17 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Taiga · 16 games
50%

Evil Geniuses

Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 33 games
48%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 32 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 26 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 25 games
72%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Chris Luck · 24 games
71%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Panda · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
510 picks · 332 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 976 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 929 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 860 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 351 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
382 picks · 1001 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
381 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total59% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:6
OG 46%Evil Geniuses 54%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by OG in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYuragi
44% · 88 games51% · 223 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbzm
47% · 111 games50% · 74 games
UnderlordChris Luck
Underlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
53% · 84 games41% · 52 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCeb
53% · 115 games52% · 226 games
EnchantressPanda
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTaiga
52% · 219 games55% · 42 games
LionMatthew
Lion
Game 2prediction correct11:24
OG 43%Evil Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYuragi
47% · 75 games54% · 184 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
52% · 108 games50% · 110 games
PuckChris Luck
Puck
Snapfire
Snapfirebzm
44% · 378 games52% · 49 games
Legion CommanderWisper
Legion Commander
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCeb
44% · 113 games49% · 166 games
EnchantressMatthew
Enchantress
Elder Titan
Elder TitanTaiga
49% · 53 games58% · 218 games
ClockwerkPanda
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2