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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 58 games
74%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 43 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 39 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 37 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 36 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 35 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 31 game
68%

Evil Geniuses

Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 33 games
48%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 32 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 26 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 25 games
72%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
74%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
510 picks · 329 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
451 picks · 977 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 931 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 857 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
381 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:27
Gaimin Gladiators 56%Evil Geniuses 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinQuinn
46% · 180 games51% · 274 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
58% · 125 games48% · 101 game
Legion CommanderWisper
Legion Commander
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
51% · 211 games49% · 212 games
Primal BeastChris Luck
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
49% · 323 games49% · 199 games
MarciMatthew
Marci
Batrider
BatridertOfu
52% · 315 games47% · 368 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Game 2prediction correct30:15
Gaimin Gladiators 58%Evil Geniuses 42%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorQuinn
55% · 82 games45% · 39 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Faceless Void
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
51% · 189 games53% · 79 games
LeshracChris Luck
Leshrac
Underlord
UnderlordAce
58% · 118 games46% · 149 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Lion
LiontOfu
60% · 50 games39% · 139 games
BatriderMatthew
Batrider
Io
IoSeleri
57% · 105 games40% · 138 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2