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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 42 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 30 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kaori · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 23 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 22 games
59%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 60 games
60%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 27 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 26 games
62%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
510 picks · 329 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
451 picks · 977 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 931 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 857 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
381 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:14
PSG Quest 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerTA2000
43% · 49 games58% · 165 games
BloodseekerYatoro
Bloodseeker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
54% · 169 games45% · 188 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterMalik
55% · 105 games48% · 141 game
Queen of PainLarl
Queen of Pain
Rubick
RubickOmaR
47% · 421 game51% · 317 games
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
49% · 195 games48% · 128 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed30:24
PSG Quest 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTA2000
55% · 58 games48% · 158 games
BloodseekerYatoro
Bloodseeker
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
46% · 252 games49% · 237 games
TimbersawCollapse
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsMalik
51% · 123 games53% · 429 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
52% · 250 games48% · 68 games
LionMira
Lion
Undying
UndyingKaori
45% · 267 games55% · 58 games
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 62%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2