?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO5
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:3
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:3
South America Rejectswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 33 games
58%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 22 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 21 game
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No!ob · 20 games
60%

South America Rejects

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 14 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Elmisho · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 12 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 12 games
58%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Frank · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
516 picks · 426 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
476 picks · 249 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
474 picks · 534 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
464 picks · 355 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
416 picks · 356 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
359 picks · 805 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 857 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
350 picks · 204 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed1:0
Nigma Galaxy 56%South America Rejects 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 23:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
50% · 462 games46% · 326 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Doom
DoomDavai
53% · 204 games46% · 252 games
Queen of PainFrank
Queen of Pain
Monkey King
Monkey Kingrincyq
52% · 273 games51% · 80 games
AlchemistWits
Alchemist
Zeus
ZeusGH
40% · 20 games55% · 343 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickOmaR
50% · 270 games49% · 228 games
RingmasterElmisho
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed11:41
Nigma Galaxy 57%South America Rejects 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidrincyq
56% · 91 game45% · 178 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaNo!ob
52% · 91 game53% · 115 games
Monkey KingWits
Monkey King
Largo
LargoDavai
60% · 71 game49% · 33 games
LycanFrank
Lycan
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
52% · 97 games49% · 232 games
BatriderElmisho
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
46% · 271 game39% · 63 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed16:35
Nigma Galaxy 55%South America Rejects 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 50:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerincyq
45% · 184 games52% · 129 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNo!ob
48% · 62 games51% · 179 games
DoomWits
Doom
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
49% · 210 games50% · 160 games
Primal BeastFrank
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
48% · 170 games57% · 313 games
BatriderElmisho
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
53% · 274 games44% · 119 games
Skywrath MageScofield
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 61%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3