Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Rubick
Fantasy · 30 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 26 games
Snapfire
SumaiL · 23 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
Snapfire
Armel · 15 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
641 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
510 picks · 332 bans
Doom
454 picks · 979 bans
Batrider
409 picks · 935 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 861 bans
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
385 picks · 1012 bans
Pugna
381 picks · 449 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 25%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:34
Team Aster 58%Team Secret 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:08:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordMonet
PuckArmel
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Monkey KingCrystallis
TimbersawXxs
TidehunterFbz
RubickKaka
Batrideryamich
VenomancerFantasy
SilencerPuppey
Game 2prediction correct19:13
Team Aster 60%Team Secret 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMonet
DawnbreakerFbz
Dark SeerXxs
Drow RangerCrystallis
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Ember SpiritArmel
BatriderKaka
ClockwerkPuppey
Keeper of the LightFantasy
Dark Willowyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 67%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2