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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 34 games
65%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
64%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 20 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 19 games
74%

BETBOOM TEAM

Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 30 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 29 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 29 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 28 games
68%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 25 games
68%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Save- · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 23 games
70%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
506 picks · 332 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
452 picks · 978 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
407 picks · 934 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 860 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
383 picks · 1011 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:28
Shopify Rebellion 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenArteezy
61% · 232 games49% · 313 games
BroodmotherNightfall
Broodmother
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
50% · 389 games44% · 580 games
SnapfiregpK~
Snapfire
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
57% · 351 game40% · 105 games
Legion CommanderPure~
Legion Commander
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
48% · 270 games49% · 431 game
BatriderTORONTOTOKYO
Batrider
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
48% · 650 games51% · 463 games
TechiesSave-
Techies
Game 2prediction correct16:45
Shopify Rebellion 46%BETBOOM TEAM 54%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaArteezy
59% · 169 games47% · 224 games
BloodseekerNightfall
Bloodseeker
Mars
MarsAbed
49% · 111 games52% · 248 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
51% · 361 game46% · 451 game
DoomPure~
Doom
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
47% · 438 games50% · 203 games
LichTORONTOTOKYO
Lich
Undying
UndyingFly
47% · 283 games52% · 236 games
PugnaSave-
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 58%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2