ESL Challenger China Season 3 x ACL 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Dawningwin 2:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Refuserloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Dawning
No games played over 6 months.
Team Refuser
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
Razoroften banned
zeal · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
zeal · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
Kezoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
Muertaoften banned
Pyw · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Dy · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Pyw · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
517 picks · 427 bans
Hoodwink
475 picks · 249 bans
Phoenix
474 picks · 533 bans
Tiny
462 picks · 355 bans
Tusk
417 picks · 356 bans
Beastmaster
359 picks · 804 bans
Puck
354 picks · 857 bans
Warlock
349 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Cloud Dawning
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Refuser
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:37
Cloud Dawning 30%Team Refuser 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Refuser — the game was taken by Cloud Dawning in 59:44.
Game 2prediction missed0:0
Cloud Dawning 30%Team Refuser 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Refuser — the game was taken by Cloud Dawning in 33:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Refuser · 70%
Series resultCloud Dawning 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2