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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 34 games
65%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
64%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 20 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 19 games
74%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 43 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 26 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 15 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
497 picks · 327 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
452 picks · 978 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 928 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 857 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1011 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 28%
Hero pool strength55% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:18
Shopify Rebellion 55%TSM 45%
The model gave 55% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by TSM in 27:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracAbed
53% · 231 game56% · 142 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidArteezy
46% · 162 games54% · 70 games
Puckbryle-
Puck
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
42% · 73 games54% · 60 games
Visagekasane
Visage
Clinkz
ClinkzCr1t-
56% · 40 games46% · 66 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Io
IoFly
47% · 119 games47% · 287 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct24:2
Shopify Rebellion 58%TSM 42%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenArteezy
55% · 260 games46% · 210 games
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Leshrac
LeshracAbed
57% · 269 games54% · 195 games
Broodmotherkasane
Broodmother
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
48% · 122 games46% · 119 games
BloodseekerTimado
Bloodseeker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
49% · 214 games46% · 383 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Io
IoFly
53% · 103 games47% · 61 game
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2