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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 24 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Q · 24 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 23 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 23 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 21 game
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 21 game
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 18 games
56%

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
65%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
46%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
42%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 10 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
497 picks · 327 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
452 picks · 978 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 928 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 857 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1011 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 26%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:12
Talon Esports 60%Team Secret 40%
The model gave 60% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
43% · 123 games46% · 200 games
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
47% · 165 games46% · 371 game
SnapfireArmel
Snapfire
Pudge
Pudge23savage
50% · 96 games58% · 102 games
Dark SeerFbz
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinyQ
48% · 378 games56% · 53 games
Elder TitanPuppey
Elder Titan
Enigma
EnigmaOli
51% · 153 games55% · 189 games
Crystal Maidenyamich
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct23:7
Talon Esports 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
41% · 265 games60% · 170 games
MedusaCrystallis
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
48% · 265 games54% · 327 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordJabz
52% · 148 games51% · 363 games
Ember SpiritArmel
Ember Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQ
50% · 147 games40% · 22 games
Ogre MagiPuppey
Ogre Magi
Silencer
SilencerOli
51% · 295 games45% · 238 games
Snapfireyamich
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 65%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2