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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 27 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 19 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 18 games
50%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 35 games
51%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 17 games
53%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 17 games
71%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
493 picks · 325 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 980 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
402 picks · 927 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 855 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1009 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 37%
Hero pool strength55% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total69% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
LGD Gaming 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekershiro
51% · 137 games49% · 141 game
Templar AssassinYuragi
Templar Assassin
Lina
LinaNothingToSay
53% · 92 games45% · 189 games
Timbersawbzm
Timbersaw
Doom
Doomniu
55% · 217 games46% · 168 games
Spirit BreakerDM
Spirit Breaker
Batrider
BatriderpLAnet
52% · 180 games49% · 94 games
PhoenixCeb
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
52% · 25 games49% · 59 games
Dark WillowTaiga
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct36:5
LGD Gaming 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
58% · 144 games49% · 74 games
SvenYuragi
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
51% · 152 games55% · 135 games
VisageDM
Visage
Mars
Marsniu
44% · 99 games47% · 221 game
Puckbzm
Puck
Undying
Undyingy`
44% · 209 games47% · 187 games
Monkey KingCeb
Monkey King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
55% · 97 games50% · 84 games
IoTaiga
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 69%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2