?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 19 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 12 games
83%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 10 games
40%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 41 game
66%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 27 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 24 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 22 games
59%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kaori · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
493 picks · 325 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 980 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
402 picks · 927 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 855 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1009 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 66%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
Xtreme Gaming 44%PSG Quest 56%
The model gave 56% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
48% · 280 games50% · 198 games
SlarkTA2000
Slark
Broodmother
BroodmotherJT-
57% · 253 games44% · 194 games
MarsMalik
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierPaparazi
51% · 384 games45% · 352 games
SnapfireNo!ob
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
50% · 45 games48% · 116 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Monkey King
Monkey KingXinQ
53% · 208 games55% · 310 games
MiranaOmaR
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed33:29
Xtreme Gaming 44%PSG Quest 56%
The model gave 56% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 52:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidGhost
52% · 182 games54% · 242 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
53% · 304 games57% · 85 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Pudge
PudgeJT-
47% · 144 games47% · 95 games
SlarkTA2000
Slark
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageXinQ
50% · 206 games46% · 343 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
55% · 70 games42% · 141 game
SilencerKaori
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2