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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSwin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ilbirs eSportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
elmo^^ · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 6 games
33%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
bottega · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
elmo^^ · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
mrls · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
prblms · 4 games
25%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
elmo^^ · 4 games
50%

Ilbirs eSports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 6 games
17%
Tiny
Tiny
xsvampire · 5 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
niche · 5 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Undyne_ · 4 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Norma · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
517 picks · 427 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
475 picks · 249 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
474 picks · 533 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
462 picks · 355 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
417 picks · 356 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
359 picks · 804 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
354 picks · 857 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 204 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% MODUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MODUS 27%Ilbirs eSports 73%
The model gave 73% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports.
Game 2prediction missed
MODUS 27%Ilbirs eSports 73%
The model gave 73% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by MODUS.
Game 3prediction missed
MODUS 27%Ilbirs eSports 73%
The model gave 73% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by MODUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 73%
Series resultMODUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3