?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
65%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 13 games
31%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
42%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
55%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 11 games
27%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 10 games
60%

Execration

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 28 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 22 games
68%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 20 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 15 games
27%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
494 picks · 323 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 985 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 856 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 935 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1008 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
379 picks · 450 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 24%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:32
Team Secret 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Execration in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireArmel
43% · 274 games53% · 176 games
Faceless VoidPalos
Faceless Void
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
45% · 140 games51% · 351 game
BatriderBob
Batrider
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFbz
56% · 106 games49% · 391 game
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Venomancer
VenomancerPuppey
51% · 102 games55% · 52 games
LionShanks
Lion
Tiny
Tinyyamich
48% · 348 games
Game 2prediction correct34:12
Team Secret 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCrystallis
54% · 211 games46% · 148 games
BloodseekerPalos
Bloodseeker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerArmel
51% · 102 games56% · 249 games
BroodmotherTino-
Broodmother
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFbz
54% · 157 games49% · 152 games
PuckBob
Puck
Snapfire
Snapfireyamich
44% · 393 games43% · 535 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Enigma
EnigmaPuppey
56% · 221 game
Game 3prediction correct34:12
Team Secret 55%Execration 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
47% · 159 games51% · 161 game
Templar AssassinBob
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawArmel
50% · 242 games54% · 254 games
Monkey KingPalos
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderFbz
52% · 219 games57% · 135 games
Dark SeerTino-
Dark Seer
Snapfire
Snapfireyamich
45% · 373 games46% · 642 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPuppey
47% · 199 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 63%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3