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ESL Challenger China Season 3 x ACL 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 29 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 26 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 23 games
70%

Yakult Brothers

Jakiro
Jakiro
天命 · 21 game
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 18 games
28%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Moon · 18 games
39%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moon · 17 games
29%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 16 games
38%
Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 16 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
517 picks · 427 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
475 picks · 244 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
474 picks · 528 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
461 picks · 355 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
417 picks · 356 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
358 picks · 801 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
353 picks · 857 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 204 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total80% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
Xtreme Gaming 68%Yakult Brothers 32%
The model gave 68% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
48% · 239 games48% · 68 games
Alchemistlou
Alchemist
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNothingToSay
47% · 368 games49% · 328 games
PangolierJT-
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterXiao8
54% · 180 games53% · 323 games
PuckMoon
Puck
Rubick
Rubickfy
55% · 184 games50% · 165 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernxNova
53% · 18 games45% · 105 games
Dazzle天命
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct29:20
Xtreme Gaming 70%Yakult Brothers 30%
The model gave 70% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 49:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
53% · 37 games49% · 131 game
UnderlordJT-
Underlord
Lone Druid
Lone DruidAme
67% · 34 games44% · 66 games
Kezlou
Kez
Axe
AxeXiao8
50% · 211 games39% · 159 games
PangolierMoon
Pangolier
Windranger
Windrangerfy
55% · 224 games47% · 79 games
RubickBoBoKa
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorxNova
55% · 121 game47% · 192 games
Warlock天命
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 80%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2