Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 40 games
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 27 games
Techiessignature
OmaR · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 22 games
Silenceroften banned
Kaori · 22 games
Tinysignature
No!ob · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
492 picks · 322 bans
Doom
449 picks · 986 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 856 bans
Batrider
400 picks · 937 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
379 picks · 1011 bans
Pugna
379 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:36
beastcoast 42%PSG Quest 58%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 32:07.
Game 2prediction correct26:27
beastcoast 42%PSG Quest 58%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 33:11.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 58%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2