Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
9Pandasloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 13 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 11 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 10 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 48 games
Rubick
Antares · 41 game
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 35 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 32 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 31 game
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 31 game
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
492 picks · 322 bans
Doom
449 picks · 986 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 856 bans
Batrider
400 picks · 937 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
379 picks · 1011 bans
Pugna
379 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:3
Team Secret 41%9Pandas 59%
The model gave 59% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Team Secret in 16:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkCrystallis
BeastmasterMieRo
SnapfireArmel
WindrangerRAMZES666
TimbersawFbz
Tinkerkiyotaka
EnchantressPuppey
RubickAntares
Monkey Kingyamich
UndyingSolo
Game 2prediction correct24:23
Team Secret 40%9Pandas 60%
The model gave 60% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerCrystallis
JuggernautRAMZES666
SnapfireArmel
Rubickkiyotaka
TimbersawFbz
DoomMieRo
ChenPuppey
ClinkzAntares
Lionyamich
Shadow DemonSolo
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2