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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 42 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 25 games
48%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 15 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
58%

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 15 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 11 games
73%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
492 picks · 319 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 989 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 854 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 939 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1011 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
378 picks · 450 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:19
TSM 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
45% · 198 games38% · 77 games
Troll WarlordKiritych
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbryle-
54% · 144 games50% · 442 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Broodmother
Broodmotherkasane
58% · 204 games51% · 293 games
Primal BeastNoticed
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenWhitemon
57% · 99 games53% · 244 games
BatriderFng
Batrider
Rubick
RubickAri
44% · 609 games47% · 198 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed21:8
TSM 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by TSM in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracbryle-
57% · 203 games48% · 79 games
Templar AssassinSquad1x
Templar Assassin
Luna
LunaTimado
54% · 76 games44% · 156 games
TimbersawNoticed
Timbersaw
Lycan
Lycankasane
56% · 127 games46% · 122 games
Faceless VoidKiritych
Faceless Void
Batrider
BatriderAri
50% · 285 games49% · 371 game
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Io
IoWhitemon
53% · 109 games44% · 72 games
LichFng
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2