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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 36 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 29 games
45%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SumaiL · 21 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
492 picks · 319 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 989 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 854 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 939 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1011 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
378 picks · 450 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total81% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:31
Team Liquid 68%Team Aster 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertamiCKe
33% · 17 games60% · 200 games
SlarkMonet
Slark
Timbersaw
Timbersawzai
41% · 164 games55% · 212 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
40% · 315 games58% · 115 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
54% · 131 game51% · 313 games
BatriderKaka
Batrider
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
45% · 301 game55% · 88 games
IoFantasy
Io
Game 2prediction missed16:35
Team Liquid 68%Team Aster 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoNisha
48% · 18 games45% · 112 games
BloodseekerMonet
Bloodseeker
Mars
MarsmiCKe
46% · 204 games48% · 13 games
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
Outworld Destroyer
Enigma
Enigmazai
54% · 250 games55% · 168 games
BroodmotherXxs
Broodmother
Pudge
PudgeBoxi
52% · 141 game46% · 424 games
RubickKaka
Rubick
Techies
TechiesiNSaNiA
50% · 281 game52% · 177 games
ClockwerkFantasy
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 81%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2