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ESL Challenger China Season 3 x ACL 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mideng Dreamerloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 11 games
18%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 10 games
30%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
22%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
LOyd · 7 games
29%

Mideng Dreamer

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
7e · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Yumeyume · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
100%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Undyne_ · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
517 picks · 427 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
475 picks · 244 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
474 picks · 528 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
461 picks · 355 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
417 picks · 356 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
358 picks · 801 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
353 picks · 857 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 204 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Mideng Dreamer
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:13
Roar Gaming 50%Mideng Dreamer 50%
The model gave 50% on Mideng Dreamer — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 47:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverukiyo
41% · 72 games51% · 63 games
Death ProphetBEYOND
Death Prophet
Puck
PuckButterflyEffect
52% · 445 games53% · 462 games
Void Spirit7e
Void Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehunter生死
60% · 136 games50% · 88 games
AlchemistYumeyume
Alchemist
Jakiro
JakiroLOyd
51% · 383 games46% · 510 games
WarlockUndyne_
Warlock
Rubick
RubickCatYou
47% · 87 games
Game 2prediction correct11:37
Roar Gaming 50%Mideng Dreamer 50%
The model gave 50% on Mideng Dreamer — the game was taken by Mideng Dreamer in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
Tidehunter生死
57% · 189 games42% · 150 games
DoomBEYOND
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey Kingukiyo
52% · 201 game49% · 306 games
TinyYumeyume
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
46% · 226 games45% · 273 games
Storm Spirit7e
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickCatYou
49% · 141 game51% · 93 games
SilencerUndyne_
Silencer
Venomancer
VenomancerLOyd
64% · 65 games
Game 3prediction correct30:10
Roar Gaming 50%Mideng Dreamer 50%
The model gave 50% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyukiyo
52% · 329 games52% · 194 games
MuertaYumeyume
Muerta
Sniper
SniperButterflyEffect
55% · 22 games49% · 154 games
DoomBEYOND
Doom
Tidehunter
Tidehunter生死
60% · 153 games42% · 295 games
Storm Spirit7e
Storm Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressLOyd
47% · 119 games46% · 138 games
SilencerUndyne_
Silencer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCatYou
52% · 158 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 54%
Series resultRoar Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3