Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 13 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
Void Spirit
Armel · 10 games
Windrangeroften banned
Crystallis · 10 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 34 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 19 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 17 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 16 games
Dark Willow
Taiga · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
490 picks · 323 bans
Doom
454 picks · 991 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 860 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 938 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1011 bans
Pugna
378 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 32%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total60% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:22
Team Secret 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracArmel
Naga SirenYuragi
SvenCrystallis
Ember Spiritbzm
MarsFbz
Dark SeerDM
ChenPuppey
EnigmaCeb
Rubickyamich
Crystal MaidenTaiga
Game 2prediction correct23:28
Team Secret 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerCrystallis
Templar AssassinYuragi
VisageFbz
Snapfirebzm
TimbersawArmel
EnigmaCeb
RubickPuppey
VenomancerDM
Monkey Kingyamich
ClockwerkTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 60%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2