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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 27 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 20 games
70%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 20 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
31%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
57%

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 15 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 12 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 11 games
73%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
490 picks · 323 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
454 picks · 991 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 860 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 938 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1011 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
378 picks · 450 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:28
Execration 45%Virtus.pro 55%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Execration in 42:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorTino-
55% · 66 games38% · 4 games
MeepoKiritych
Meepo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPalos
60% · 143 games44% · 198 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckBob
51% · 137 games38% · 29 games
Legion CommanderNoticed
Legion Commander
Clockwerk
ClockwerkShanks
56% · 289 games53% · 147 games
EnigmaFng
Enigma
39% · 257 games
Snapfiresayuw
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct9:39
Execration 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 24:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoTino-
56% · 13 games54% · 125 games
BroodmotherNoticed
Broodmother
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPalos
49% · 177 games55% · 211 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireBob
44% · 457 games43% · 135 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Enigma
EnigmaShanks
54% · 222 games52% · 75 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
47% · 323 games
UndyingFng
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2