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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 15 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 11 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 11 games
55%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 34 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
488 picks · 323 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
456 picks · 993 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 858 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 938 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
383 picks · 1007 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
379 picks · 449 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total89% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:33
Virtus.pro 23%Team Liquid 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireSquad1x
37% · 294 games58% · 289 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Mars
MarsNoticed
42% · 127 games55% · 203 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendKiritych
46% · 132 games54% · 107 games
Razorzai
Razor
Batrider
Batridersayuw
41% · 229 games64% · 79 games
IoiNSaNiA
Io
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFng
49% · 256 games56% · 360 games
DisruptorBoxi
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct16:37
Virtus.pro 24%Team Liquid 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 50:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSquad1x
55% · 179 games50% · 87 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightKiritych
40% · 120 games45% · 183 games
SnapfireNisha
Snapfire
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
49% · 177 games58% · 53 games
Lycanzai
Lycan
Lion
Lionsayuw
55% · 78 games49% · 73 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Io
IoFng
53% · 113 games49% · 271 game
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 89%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2