Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 41 game
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 25 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 16 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
488 picks · 323 bans
Doom
456 picks · 993 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 858 bans
Batrider
394 picks · 938 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
383 picks · 1007 bans
Pugna
379 picks · 449 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 27%
Hero pool strength54% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:20
Entity 52%TSM 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by TSM in 21:04.
Game 2prediction missed19:28
Entity 52%TSM 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by TSM in 29:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2