Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Miranasignature
Dy · 18 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 18 games
Rubick
Kaka · 15 games
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 14 games
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 12 games
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
486 picks · 322 bans
Doom
455 picks · 991 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 854 bans
Batrider
393 picks · 937 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1006 bans
Pugna
379 picks · 449 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:35
beastcoast 65%Xtreme Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:58.
Game 2prediction missed39:17
beastcoast 65%Xtreme Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:08.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 65%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2