Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 33 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 19 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 16 games
Doomsignature
DM · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 15 games
Venomancersignature
DM · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
476 picks · 323 bans
Doom
459 picks · 988 bans
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 850 bans
Batrider
391 picks · 936 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1005 bans
Pugna
378 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 34%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:31
beastcoast 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 34:07.
Game 2prediction correct24:43
beastcoast 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 46:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 56%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2