Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 24 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Monet · 19 games
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 39 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 25 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 16 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
476 picks · 323 bans
Doom
459 picks · 988 bans
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 850 bans
Batrider
391 picks · 936 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1005 bans
Pugna
378 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 28%
Hero pool strength51% TSM
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total57% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:23
Team Aster 51%TSM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerMonet
TerrorbladeTimado
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Puckbryle-
TidehunterXxs
Broodmotherkasane
Keeper of the LightFantasy
RubickAri
LionKaka
UndyingWhitemon
Game 2prediction missed13:22
Team Aster 53%TSM 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by TSM in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainSumaiL
MorphlingTimado
Faceless VoidMonet
Dragon Knightbryle-
MarsXxs
Broodmotherkasane
SnapfireKaka
RubickAri
PugnaFantasy
Elder TitanWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2