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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 33 games
52%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 16 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
DM · 15 games
60%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 15 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DM · 14 games
43%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 33 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 24 games
79%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 24 games
71%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 21 game
62%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 20 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 20 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
473 picks · 323 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
459 picks · 987 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 846 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
390 picks · 933 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
378 picks · 1003 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
378 picks · 448 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:28
OG 51%PSG Quest 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 27:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuragi
54% · 176 games51% · 111 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Invoker
Invokerbzm
43% · 115 games53% · 72 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiDM
36% · 41 game49% · 260 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Lion
LionCeb
55% · 73 games45% · 64 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Undying
UndyingTaiga
53% · 422 games54% · 320 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed12:25
OG 52%PSG Quest 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 36:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
48% · 291 game57% · 183 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
52% · 129 games51% · 240 games
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbzm
46% · 256 games55% · 130 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressCeb
49% · 301 game47% · 131 game
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Undying
UndyingTaiga
48% · 380 games48% · 673 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 58%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2