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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 20 games
70%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
53%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
31%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
46%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 38 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 25 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 16 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 16 games
69%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
kasane · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
473 picks · 323 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
459 picks · 987 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 846 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
390 picks · 933 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
378 picks · 1003 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
378 picks · 448 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:34
Execration 48%TSM 52%
The model gave 52% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 32:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherPalos
59% · 177 games45% · 219 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomTino-
46% · 350 games46% · 278 games
Primal Beastbryle-
Primal Beast
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
50% · 443 games46% · 141 game
Underlordkasane
Underlord
Mirana
MiranaShanks
56% · 377 games50% · 632 games
RubickAri
Rubick
51% · 77 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Game 2prediction correct9:32
Execration 47%TSM 53%
The model gave 53% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 30:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalos
53% · 179 games56% · 166 games
Leshracbryle-
Leshrac
Visage
VisageTino-
55% · 98 games44% · 115 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBob
50% · 146 games56% · 65 games
Underlordkasane
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
38% · 263 games50% · 61 game
IoWhitemon
Io
51% · 279 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 57%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2