Road To Asian Games · BO1
result vs prediction
Казахстанloss 0:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Узбекистанwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Казахстан
No games played over 6 months.
Узбекистан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
644 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
497 picks · 350 bans
Doom
484 picks · 1019 bans
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 885 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 973 bans
Beastmaster
395 picks · 1038 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
Pugna
379 picks · 449 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Казахстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Казахстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Казахстан 84%Узбекистан 16%
The model gave 84% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Узбекистан.
Model check result
Model favoriteКазахстан · 84%
Series resultУзбекистан 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1