Road To Asian Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Казахстанwin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Туркменистанloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Казахстан
No games played over 6 months.
Туркменистан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
644 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
521 picks · 352 bans
Doom
497 picks · 1032 bans
Ember Spirit
416 picks · 896 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 986 bans
Beastmaster
398 picks · 1057 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Pugna
379 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Казахстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Казахстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Казахстан 88%Туркменистан 12%
The model gave 88% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан.
Game 2prediction correct
Казахстан 88%Туркменистан 12%
The model gave 88% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан.
Model check result
Model favoriteКазахстан · 88%
Series resultКазахстан 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2