The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomoften banned
33 · 37 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 33 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 33 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 33 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 29 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 28 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 23 games
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 37 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
Doomsignature
zai · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
670 picks · 706 bans
Rubick
616 picks · 426 bans
Doom
563 picks · 1115 bans
Ember Spirit
472 picks · 988 bans
Beastmaster
467 picks · 1169 bans
Enchantress
438 picks · 707 bans
Batrider
426 picks · 1117 bans
Disruptor
426 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:43
Tundra Esports 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom33
LeshracNisha
UrsaSkiter
BloodseekermiCKe
SniperNine
Timbersawzai
EnchantressAui_2000
IoiNSaNiA
RubickSneyking
WindrangerBoxi
Game 2prediction missed23:32
Tundra Esports 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusNine
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Timbersaw33
Storm SpiritNisha
Dragon KnightSkiter
Enigmazai
BatriderSneyking
SilenceriNSaNiA
MiranaAui_2000
ClockwerkBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2