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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 32 games
66%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 22 games
86%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 21 game
62%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 20 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 20 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
No!ob · 19 games
58%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 35 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
76%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 21 game
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
671 picks · 707 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
620 picks · 429 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
566 picks · 1120 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
475 picks · 993 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
466 picks · 1172 bans
56%
Enchantress
Enchantress
439 picks · 712 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
432 picks · 394 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 1119 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total67% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:34
PSG Quest 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 56:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
53% · 253 games53% · 198 games
BroodmothermiCKe
Broodmother
Mars
MarsATF
45% · 202 games51% · 269 games
Beastmasterzai
Beastmaster
Windranger
WindrangerNo!ob
56% · 91 game50% · 72 games
Dragon KnightNisha
Dragon Knight
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
53% · 441 game45% · 437 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
49% · 131 game48% · 142 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed35:13
PSG Quest 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageTA2000
52% · 109 games56% · 153 games
MedusamiCKe
Medusa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
49% · 346 games56% · 136 games
Visagezai
Visage
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 209 games52% · 376 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesOmaR
50% · 393 games49% · 330 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Undying
UndyingKaori
42% · 512 games48% · 574 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct17:20
PSG Quest 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 47:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
50% · 294 games52% · 344 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
42% · 425 games53% · 486 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Broodmother
BroodmotherATF
55% · 202 games49% · 143 games
Lycanzai
Lycan
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
45% · 127 games52% · 413 games
MiranaBoxi
Mirana
Rubick
RubickOmaR
49% · 832 games52% · 494 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3