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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 31 game
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 21 game
86%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 20 games
55%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 20 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
No!ob · 19 games
58%

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 28 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
68%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 21 game
52%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
670 picks · 704 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
620 picks · 429 bans
46%
Doom
Doom
567 picks · 1119 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
475 picks · 991 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
468 picks · 1174 bans
56%
Enchantress
Enchantress
439 picks · 713 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
435 picks · 393 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 1121 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:5
PSG Quest 45%LGD Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 19:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
60% · 132 games44% · 514 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Slark
SlarkATF
57% · 140 games45% · 245 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
52% · 286 games54% · 95 games
Anti-Mageshiro
Anti-Mage
Rubick
RubickOmaR
43% · 479 games49% · 213 games
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
47% · 95 games51% · 65 games
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed28:22
PSG Quest 43%LGD Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 57:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTA2000
46% · 211 games58% · 225 games
Naga Sirenshiro
Naga Siren
Doom
DoomATF
50% · 192 games52% · 227 games
Visageniu
Visage
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
53% · 195 games43% · 142 games
WindrangerNothingToSay
Windranger
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
53% · 188 games46% · 194 games
Spirit BreakerpLAnet
Spirit Breaker
Silencer
SilencerKaori
47% · 208 games52% · 206 games
Pugnay`
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 64%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2