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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 34 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
81%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 20 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 37 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 33 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 33 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 32 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 28 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 27 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 23 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
669 picks · 704 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
622 picks · 434 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
566 picks · 1120 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
480 picks · 996 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
471 picks · 1183 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
443 picks · 399 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
441 picks · 711 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 1132 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 51%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:39
Team Liquid 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 52:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SnipermiCKe
46% · 136 games52% · 75 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Doom
Doomzai
50% · 419 games48% · 391 game
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
51% · 259 games51% · 302 games
EnchantressAui_2000
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaiNSaNiA
62% · 126 games45% · 156 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Tusk
TuskBoxi
48% · 494 games49% · 510 games
TinySneyking
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct27:23
Team Liquid 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophoszai
54% · 28 games57% · 148 games
BroodmotherSkiter
Broodmother
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
47% · 293 games53% · 100 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
43% · 107 games56% · 5 games
MeepoNine
Meepo
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
45% · 248 games50% · 138 games
VisageAui_2000
Visage
Pugna
PugnaBoxi
56% · 73 games48% · 358 games
TinySneyking
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2