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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 34 games
65%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 23 games
70%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 19 games
84%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
669 picks · 698 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
629 picks · 440 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
566 picks · 1119 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
479 picks · 1008 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
471 picks · 1187 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
450 picks · 408 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
439 picks · 712 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
418 picks · 1135 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total65% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:31
beastcoast 35%Shopify Rebellion 65%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:18.
Game 2prediction correct34:50
beastcoast 35%Shopify Rebellion 65%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 46:54.
Game 3prediction correct29:16
beastcoast 35%Shopify Rebellion 65%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 65%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3