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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 34 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 20 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 20 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 28 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 22 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
78%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 18 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
665 picks · 695 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
634 picks · 448 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
568 picks · 1120 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
482 picks · 1019 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
478 picks · 1197 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
457 picks · 423 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
449 picks · 713 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
426 picks · 892 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:21
Team Liquid 52%LGD Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 55:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
44% · 447 games53% · 197 games
Naga Sirenshiro
Naga Siren
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
44% · 335 games51% · 357 games
Doomniu
Doom
Pudge
Pudgezai
48% · 108 games54% · 339 games
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
44% · 264 games52% · 254 games
TechiespLAnet
Techies
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
54% · 379 games56% · 386 games
Miranay`
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed17:24
Team Liquid 52%LGD Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
50% · 174 games41% · 94 games
Phantom Lancershiro
Phantom Lancer
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
54% · 176 games52% · 227 games
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Primal Beast
Lycan
Lycanzai
46% · 118 games57% · 160 games
Broodmotherniu
Broodmother
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
51% · 126 games49% · 286 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
52% · 281 game46% · 108 games
PhoenixpLAnet
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct23:6
Team Liquid 54%LGD Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
54% · 208 games57% · 127 games
Broodmothershiro
Broodmother
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
43% · 157 games41% · 171 game
WindrangerNothingToSay
Windranger
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzai
54% · 144 games47% · 112 games
Enigmaniu
Enigma
Techies
TechiesBoxi
54% · 242 games49% · 251 game
DisruptorpLAnet
Disruptor
Pugna
PugnaiNSaNiA
55% · 165 games46% · 255 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3